College Football Upset Picks, Predictions Week 13: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week
Last week, our college football upset picks correctly identified the upset of one of the few previously undefeated FBS teams, and we are back to make a new trio of underdog predictions for a loaded Week 13 college football slate.
- The top four teams in the AP poll all played road games last week for just the second time since 2015 and went 4-0 SU but 1-3 ATS
- Two of college football’s three remaining unbeaten teams (Indiana and Army) are underdogs this week
- BYU suffered its first loss in a home upset against Kansas and is an underdog for the second straight week at Arizona State
Our college football upset picks, part of our college football Week 13 predictions, fade a Mountain West team that has spent time in the AP top 25 and expects a shakeup in the SEC standings with an upset of one of the league’s two one-loss teams.
College football upset picks: Week 13
College football odds as of Tuesday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- San Jose State (+240 via BetMGM) vs. UNLV ⭐⭐⭐
- Illinois (-104 via FanDuel) at Rutgers ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Auburn (+115 via BetMGM) vs. Texas A&M ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Week 13 upset predictions
College football picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
San Jose State (+240) ⭐⭐⭐
San Jose State has already exceeded preseason expectations under first-year head coach Ken Niumatalolo. The Spartans are 6-4 after their preseason win total was set at 4.5, and while Niumatalolo did not completely bring his triple-option attack over from Navy, the hybrid run-and-shoot offense they employ has given plenty of opponents fits.
Last week, San Jose State raced out to a 14-0 lead and still led midway through the third quarter against a Boise State team that could very well be the Group of Five representative in the College Football Playoff.
The Spartans' offensive line entered last week ranked in the bottom 10 of all FBS teams in PFF’s pass-blocking grade. But that unit showed tremendous growth against the Broncos, allowing just one sack on 50 pass attempts.
UNLV has a tough prep for a San Jose State team that entered last week ranked 11th in seconds between plays.
While the Rebels’ only loss in their last five games is to Boise State, the Spartans had great preparation for UNLV’s rushing offense that ranks top-six in Rush Rate, having faced Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty last week.
There is a big 20-cent gap between BetMGM’s +240 odds and FanDuel’s +220 odds at the low end of the market. At BetMGM, a $10 wager would net $24 in profits if San Jose State pulls the upset.
Best odds: +240 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 29.41%
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Illinois (-104) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Illinois has three losses in Big Ten play this year, but two are to near-lock CFP teams (Oregon and Penn State). Meanwhile, Rutgers has plodded along to a 3-4 league record despite facing just one of the six teams over .500 in Big Ten play.
Rutgers is built similarly to Michigan, looking to control games with a physical rushing attack while hiding its quarterback’s limitations in the passing game. Illinois beat the Wolverines 21-7 while holding them to 3.0 yards per carry.
That should be the formula for success when facing a Rutgers squad whose quarterback (Athan Kaliakmanis) has a 3-3 TD-INT ratio in his last three conference home games (he is also 1-2 in those games).
I am backing Illinois at FanDuel’s -104 odds before the line jumps the fence and makes the Fighting Illini road favorites.
Best odds: -104 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.98%
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Auburn (+115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Auburn is one of the four SEC teams with a losing record (3-4) in home games this season. And while the Tigers have been outscored at Jordan-Hare Stadium by 26 points in three SEC games (0-3), I am buying into what oddsmakers seem to know when making Auburn less than a field-goal underdog.
Two weeks ago, Texas A&M suffered its worst loss in school history (44-20) as an AP-top-10 team when facing an unranked team.
Aggies quarterback Marcel Reed was pressured on 16 of his 36 dropbacks in that loss to South Carolina. Auburn’s defense should also tee off on Reed, as Texas A&M’s running game is heavily compromised after losing leading rusher Le’Veon Moss (765 yards rushing, 10 rushing touchdowns, 6.3 yards per carry) to a season-ending knee injury.
Our best college football betting sites are closely aligned with the moneyline odds on this game, and BetMGM offers the best price at +115, where a winning $10 bet would yield an $11.50 profit.
Best odds: +115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 46.51%
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