College Football's Riskiest Teams & Players for 2024 Season: Can You Really Trust Colorado?

Anything can happen during the college football season, and this year is shaping up to be the most unpredictable in recent memory. 

There's no clear-cut front-runner by the Heisman Trophy odds, and thanks to the 12-team playoff expansion, the College Football Playoff odds across our best sports betting sites have more teams contending ahead of the season than ever before.

That opens up several programs and quarterbacks to be among college football's riskiest teams and players, especially a few passers playing for teams near the top of the college football championship odds.

So which teams should you be wary of backing, and who among the Heisman candidates are worth staying away from?

Which college football teams are the riskiest to bet on?

Colorado

Colorado football is a hot-button topic thanks to Deion Sanders' brash approach to roster construction and the fact that his son, Shedeur Sanders, sits atop the 2025 NFL Draft odds. The Buffaloes are nothing if not entertaining, and Sanders and Travis Hunter could both end up as top-15 picks come April, but I'm not sure Colorado is going to be any better in Year 2 under Prime Time.

Colorado has just the 11th-shortest Big 12 Championship odds as the program moves back to the conference it left in 2010. The Buffaloes also have the 43rd-toughest schedule in the country, which may not sound like much, but remember how much roster turnover there is with this team... again.

Sanders is starting an entirely new offensive line, and that's not a position group that you can just stitch together. We saw how poorly that went with the transfer portal built O-line from last year never gelling - Shedeur Sanders was sacked 52 times, most in the country.

The Buffaloes return just three starters on offense and lost freshman phenom Dylan Edwards in the portal. While the defense does bring back six starters, that might not be a good thing after it ranked 113th in SP+ last season. 

Colorado won just four games last season, and I'm not sure this year's group is two wins better. The Buffaloes have dealt with more roster attrition than any team in the country, and needing to bring in 42 players via the portal isn't necessarily a good sign. 

With a schedule that includes North Dakota State, Nebraska (away), UCF (away), Kansas State, Arizona (away), Utah, Kansas (away), and Oklahoma State, I can't see them getting bowl-eligible. If they don't, a $10 winning bet on Under 5.5 wins for the Buffaloes pays a $16 profit.

Best bet: Under 5.5 wins (+160 via FanDuel) | Implied probability: 38.46%

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USC 

Entering the season, this might be the least-talked about USC team in recent memory. The Trojans are making the move to the Big Ten, and it doesn't seem like anybody even cares at this point in the Lincoln Riley era. 

Despite the lack of buzz, USC has the fifth-shortest Big Ten Championship odds and sits behind four teams primed to compete for the College Football Playoff. However, to think that USC can reach eight wins this season seems far too optimistic. With a Heisman winner and No. 1 pick at QB last season, the Trojans were just 8-5.

Now we're taking Caleb Williams off this roster and it's going to win as many games in a far tougher conference? That's a wild thought process. Yes, Riley finally fired Alex Grinch as defensive coordinator, but that's not magically turning a defense that was 105th by SP+ into a positive.

This is a rebuilding year for USC. It ranks just 99th in returning production, brings back only seven starters, and has the second-hardest schedule in the country.

Even if Miller Moss proves to be the player we saw in the Holiday Bowl last season - he threw six touchdowns against Louisville - what are the chance he's so much better than Williams that he wins eight-plus games? 

The Trojans open with LSU at Allegiant Stadium and play Michigan on the road to open Big Ten play. This schedule is a gauntlet, and if Riley can get to eight wins, he'll have done one hell of a job.

Best bet: Under 7.5 wins (-105 via BetMGM) | Implied probability: 51.22%

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Coastal Carolina

There was a time when Coastal Carolina looked like it might be the next Group of Five powerhouse. Everyone remembers the "Mormons vs. Mullets" game during the pandemic, when the Chanticleers beat Zach Wilson and BYU on short notice. 

But Jamey Chadwell left for Liberty, and AD Matt Hogue made the auraless hire of Tim Beck. Beck got rid of the spread option offense that made Coastal so tantalizing and QB Grayson McCall, the best player in program history, transferred to NC State this offseason.

What's left is a team with teal turf, but without the identity to make it pop. I think Coastal is still living off the attention that McCall and Chadwell brought it because getting the Under on six wins at even money seems like a steal.

Beck went 8-5 last season, but that was with Chadwell's leftovers. The Chants are just 114th in returning production and have the 57th-hardest schedule in the country.

The Sun Belt is no joke with Coastal having to play James Madison, Troy, and Marshall on the road and Appalachian State and Louisiana at home. It also has Jacksonville State on the road and Virginia at home in out-of-conference play.

Unless sophomore Ethan Vasko or Michigan State transfer Noah Kim turn into a breakout star at QB, I don't think the fans in Conway will be enjoying bowl eligibility for the first time since 2019.

Best bet: Under 6 wins (+100 via Caesars) | Implied probability: 50%

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Which Heisman Trophy candidates should you avoid betting on?

Quinn Ewers (QB, Texas)

It makes sense that Ewers is among the top three favorites to win the Heisman. As a sophomore, he put up 27 total touchdowns and helped lead Texas to within one play of the national title game. But I don't think enough is being made about how much the Longhorns lost on offense.

Texas' top five pass-catchers from last season, including leading rusher Jonathon Brooks, were taken in the NFL draft. While Steve Sarkisian rebuilt his offense via the portal, it's asking a lot of Ewers to play at a Heisman level with a new cast of characters.

It's not that I'm worried that the additions of Isaiah Bond (Alabama), Amari Niblack (Alabama), Matthew Golden (Houston), and Silas Bolden (Oregon State) won't work out. I just think it's a clear downgrade from last season's group.

Last year, when Jayden Daniels won this award, he had the fifth-most big-time throws in the country (29), per PFF. Ewers had the 56th-most (16) last season. And now he has to do more with less?

At the same time, Texas is going to be playing a far harder schedule this season as it moves to the SEC. The Longhorns are just behind Georgia by the SEC Championship odds, but it's going to be difficult for Ewers to put up Heisman numbers in this conference.

To rub salt in the wound, Texas doesn't just play Georgia but also has Michigan on the road in its second game of the season. Those might be the two best defenses in the country.

Oh, there's also that Manning kid waiting in the wings for Ewers to struggle. No pressure though, Quinn!

Nico Iamaleava (QB, Tennessee)

It feels like Iamaleava has been part of college football discourse for years. The former five-star recruit got all kinds of attention before ever signing with Tennessee, thanks in part to him tearing up competitions while wearing pajamas.

Now he's getting all kinds of Heisman buzz before ever really starting for the Volunteers. While he did start the bowl game against Iowa last year as a freshmen, I don't know that we saw enough for him to be entering his first season as a starter with the seventh-shortest Heisman odds.

Iamaleava didn't have to do much in the 35-0 Citrus Bowl win over the Hawkeyes and threw for just 151 yards with 27 on the ground, though he did end up with four touchdowns. And I get that part of his Heisman bump has to do with Josh Heupel's veer and shoot offense - which helped Hendon Hooker and Joe Milton put up big numbers - but to project him as a top-tier QB right away feels like a stretch.

The Volunteers rank 107th in the country in returning offensive production and have Oklahoma and Georgia on the road, and Alabama at home on their schedule. He's also got to deal with Ewers and Carson Beck in his own conference in this Heisman race.

It's not even that I think Iamaleava won't be a star -I just can't believe his odds are shorter than +2000. It just doesn't seem like money well spent to back a true sophomore with one career start at the current price.

Cam Ward (QB, Miami)

Nothing puts the importance of the transfer portal in perspective like looking at the last handful of Heisman winners. Since 2017, five of the seven Heisman winners were transfers - the two non-transfers played for Nick Saban at Alabama.

It's no longer a hinderance to be a transfer in the Heisman race, but only one of those transfers took home the Heisman in his first season with the program. Not to be negative, but I don't think Cam Ward is as talented as the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds favorite in Williams, who won it last year.

For as much fun as Ward was at Washington State, with his rocket launcher arm and ability to make plays out of structure, he's joining a Miami squad that won just seven games last year. (To be fair, it would have been eight if Mario Cristobal was familiar with the concept of kneeling.)

Cristobal loaded up in the portal with Ward, running back Damien Martinez (Oregon State), and wide receiver Samuel Brown (Houston). They join a proven wide receiver duo in Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George and it should be fun to watch.

However, Ward had the 12th-most turnover worthy plays last season (21) and had the 11th-highest pressure-to-sack rate (24.9%), per PFF. His messy play could get him in trouble with Miami's schedule including Florida and Louisville on the road and Virginia Tech and Florida State at home.

Ward makes Miami's offense must-watch TV, but it won't always be because he's playing pristine football. 

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