College Football Week 13 Picks Against the Spread for Marquee Games
As the regular season reaches its last few games, our college football Week 13 picks against the spread focus on three teams that have a chance to win their respective conferences and earn a College Football Playoff spot.
- SMU has comparable college football championship odds to Miami in the ACC and takes on Virginia this Saturday
- Needing to bounce back after an upset loss last week that allowed Colorado to overtake it in the College Football Playoff odds for the Big 12, BYU plays a surging Arizona State program
- Led by Heisman Trophy odds contender Ashton Jeanty, Boise State is poised for a blowout win against Wyoming
There may be a lack of AP Top 25 games this Saturday, but our Week 13 college football predictions focus on matchups that will impact the CFP race.
The below ATS picks are part of our college football Week 13 predictions.
College football ATS picks Week 13: Marquee games
College football picks via DraftKings and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Picks | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| NC State vs. Georgia Tech | Georgia Tech (-9) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Purdue vs. Michigan State | Purdue (+13.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Indiana vs. Ohio State | Indiana (+11.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Wake Forest vs. Miami | Miami (-24) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Ole Miss vs. Florida | Ole Miss (-10) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| SMU vs. Virginia | SMU (-9.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Kentucky vs. Texas | Texas (-20.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Penn State vs. Minnesota | Minnesota (+12) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| BYU vs. Arizona State | BYU (+3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Colorado vs. Kansas | Colorado (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Pittsburgh vs. Louisville | Pittsburgh (+8) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Army vs. Notre Dame | Notre Dame (-14) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Boise State vs. Wyoming | Boise State (-23) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Washington State vs. Oregon State | Washington State (-12.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Alabama vs. Oklahoma | Alabama (-14) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Texas A&M vs. Auburn | Texas A&M (-2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Iowa State vs. Utah | Iowa State (-6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Vanderbilt vs. LSU | Vanderbilt (+8) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Cincinnati vs. Kansas State | Kansas State (-8.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| USC vs. UCLA | USC (-4.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
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My favorite ATS picks this week
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SMU (-9.5) vs. Virginia
Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%
SMU is the most underrated team in the country and a serious threat to beat Miami and win the ACC Championship. But first, the Mustangs need to win out, and that starts with Virginia.
Led by star running back Brashard Smith, the Mustangs have the No. 8 offense by SP+ and should expose the Cavaliers' defense. Virginia is allowing the third-most yards per game in the ACC (401.0) and ranks 77th in SP+ on defense.
The Cavs may have an even tougher time scoring than stopping SMU too. The Mustangs rank 5th in EPA per rush and 28th in EPA per dropback on defense while Virginia is outside the top 50 in both on offense.
If Rhett Lashlee's team wins by double-digits, a $10 bet on SMU pays a $9.52 profit.
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BYU (+3.5) vs. Arizona State
Best odds: -108 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.92%
These two teams are coming off very different weeks with BYU being upset by Kansas and Arizona State upsetting Kansas State. While both are clearly among the best Big 12 teams, last week's results have influenced this spread a surprising amount.
The Cougars still ranks 26th in SP+ and top 40 in both offense and defense while the Sun Devils are 44th and outside the top 40 in both. More importantly, BYU has one of the best defenses in the country that should keep this close no matter who wins.
Kalani Sitake's program is top 20 in both EPA per rush and dropback on defense and is allowing the fewest yards per game (315.3) and second-fewest points per game in the Big 12 (19.5).
This defense should keep it close and allow BYU to cover for the eighth time in 11 games this season. If the Cougs come through, a $10 bet pays a $9.26 profit.
Boise State (-22.5) vs. Wyoming
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
The Jay Sawvel era in Laramie is off to a rough start. Wyoming is 2-8 and has one of the worst defenses in the country, which is a shocking thing to say about a roster built by Craig Bohl.
Now the Cowboys have to stop Ashton Jeanty? There's just no way. Wyoming is 108th in EPA per rush on defense while Jeanty has the Broncos No. 1 in the same category on offense thanks to his 1,370 rushing yards after contact, per PFF.
And somehow the Cowboys' offense is significantly worse than its defense. It's 123rd in SP+ and outside the top 115 in EPA per rush and dropback. Meanwhile, Spencer Danielson's defense is top 50 in both.
If Jeanty carries the Broncos to a 23-plus-point win, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.
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