College Football Week 12 Picks Against the Spread for Marquee Games
While this Saturday's slate isn't as awe-inspiring as previous weeks, our Week 12 picks against the spread focus on three games involving teams hoping to advance to their respective conference championships.
- Penn State hammered Washington last week and another strong performance against Purdue could reignite the Nittany Lions' college football championship odds
- Oregon has been dominating Big Ten opponents and will continue to against Wisconsin with Heisman Trophy odds contender Dillon Gabriel behind center
- Memphis is poised to blow out UAB, and a strong finish to the season for the Tigers could give them a shot to get back in the Group of Five College Football Playoff odds race
There may be a lack of AP Top 25 games this Saturday, but our Week 12 college football predictions focus on the can't-miss matchups.
College football ATS picks Week 12: Marquee games
College football picks via DraftKings and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Picks | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| UCLA vs. Washington | Washington (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Ohio State vs. Northwestern | Ohio State (-30) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Texas vs. Arkansas | Texas (-14) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Clemson vs. Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh (+10) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Utah vs. Colorado | Colorado (-10) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Tulane vs. Navy | Navy (+6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Penn State vs. Purdue | Penn State (-28.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Virginia vs. Notre Dame | Notre Dame (-23) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Boston College vs. SMU | SMU (-16.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| LSU vs. Florida | LSU (-4.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Nebraska vs. USC | Nebraska (+9) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Baylor vs. West Virginia | West Virginia (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Missouri vs. South Carolina | Missouri (+13) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Boise State vs. San Jose State | Boise State (-13.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Arizona State vs. Kansas State | Arizona State (+8.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Oregon vs. Wisconsin | Oregon (-14.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Tennessee vs. Georgia | Tennessee (+8.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Cincinnati vs. Iowa State | Iowa State (-8.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| UAB vs. Memphis | Memphis (-14) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Kansas vs. BYU | BYU (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
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My favorite ATS picks this week
College football picks as of Monday. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Penn State (-28.5) vs. Purdue
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
After Penn State choked at home against Ohio State in Week 10, the Nittany Lions took out their frustration against Washington. The Huskies are a far superior team than Purdue, and Penn State beat them by 29.
The Boilermakers are among the worst teams in the country and just lost to the Buckeyes 45-0. The offense isn't going to get any better against a Nittany Lions defense that's second in SP+.
And when it comes to stopping Drew Allar and Penn State's offense, it's just not going to happen. Purdue ranks 127th in EPA per rush and 114th in EPA per dropback on defense - the Nittany Lions rank top 14 in both on offense.
Penn State should win this one by at least 30. If they do, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.
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Oregon (-14.5) vs. Wisconsin
Best odds: +100 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50%
Since Oregon began living up to its championship hype by beating Ohio State, the Ducks have covered the spread in four of their last five games. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is just 3-6 ATS, and the three teams it's covered against have a combined 4-14 record in Big Ten play.
The Badgers have been wildly inconsistent this season, with an offense ranked 86th by SP+. Luke Fickell's team has scored just 23 points in its last two games and now takes on a Ducks' defense that's 13th in EPA per rush and sixth in EPA per dropback.
On the other side of the ball, the Badgers have to try to stop Gabriel, Jordan James, and a plethora of talented receivers. That's a tough ask when its defense is outside the top 40 in both EPA per rush and dropback.
If the Ducks can cover the spread for the fifth time since mid-October, a $10 bet pays a $10 profit at FanDuel.
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Memphis (-14) vs. UAB
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
I don't say this lightly: UAB is a joke that shot itself in the foot the second it chose to hire an inexperienced and arrogant former NFL player over Bryant Vincent. Now the Blazers are stuck with Trent Dilfer, arguably the worst hire of the last decade.
As a result, UAB is 128th in SP+ on defense and is tasked with stopping a Memphis offense with one of the best quarterback, running back, and wide receiver trios in the Group of Five. Seth Henigan, Mario Anderson, and Roc Taylor will toast UAB.
And despite Dilfer being a former top 10 pick at QB, the Blazers' offense is cooked. It's outside the top 100 in both EPA per rush and dropback while the Tigers' defense allows just 23.1 points per game.
I'd take Memphis to cover this spread if it were -20, that's how poor this UAB team has looked. And if the Tigers do cover, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.
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College football picks roundup: Week 12
- College football Week 12 upset picks
- College football Week 12 expert picks
- College football Week 12 player props
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