College Football Playoff Best Bets: Round 1 Predictions, Player Props & ATS Picks
The expanded 12-team College Football Playoff means bettors and fans are treated to playoff games on home campuses for the first time ever.
- Texas is tied for the shortest national championship odds at DraftKings despite having to play a first-round game this weekend
- Two teams that lost conference championship games meet in the SMU-Penn State matchup
- The most experienced head coach from a CFP perspective involved in this weekend’s games, Dabo Swinney, is also the only double-digit underdog at the best college football betting sites
Our College Football Playoff best bets for the first round back the Under on two players’ totals and make the case for a low-scoring affair in Austin. Our Rob Paul also makes his bowl game predictions for this week.
Our college football bowl game opt-out tracker has you covered with the latest opt-out news and the impact on the college bowl game odds.
Best College Football Playoff picks for Round 1
College football odds subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Ke’Shawn Williams Under 21.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) vs. Notre Dame ⭐⭐⭐
- Kevin Jennings Under 228.5 passing yards (-103 via Caesars) vs. Penn State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Clemson-Texas Under 52 (-112 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Tennessee +7.5 (-115 via BetMGM) vs. Ohio State ⭐⭐⭐
College Football Playoff Round 1 odds & schedule
(Odds via BetMGM)
- Indiana at Notre Dame (-7.5), Friday at 8 p.m. ET
- SMU at Penn State (-8.5), Saturday at noon ET
- Clemson at Texas (-12), Saturday at 4 p.m. ET
- Tennessee at Ohio State (-7.5), Saturday at 8 p.m. ET
College Football Playoff props for Round 1
College football picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Ke’Shawn Williams Under 21.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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Indiana has faced three teams that rank in the top 55 in the country in SP+. In those games against Ohio State, Michigan, and Nebraska, the Hoosiers employed a very conservative gameplan, with Kurtis Rourke averaging just 14 completions for 154.3 yards per game.
Elijah Sarratt’s 890 receiving yards are 319 more than the next-closest teammate, and more than double everyone’s except Omar Cooper Jr.’s receiving total. That is largely why FanDuel has the Under of 2.5 receptions juiced to -148 or lower for every Hoosiers’ receiver not named Sarratt.
We are targeting Ke’Shawn Williams’ Under of 21.5 receiving yards, as he was held to single-digit receiving yards four times this season and had five yards against Ohio State and Nebraska.
FanDuel offers the best number, as our other best sports betting sites have Williams’ total as low as 19.5.
Kevin Jennings Under 228.5 passing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -103 via Caesars | Implied probability: 50.74%
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Kevin Jennings averaged 283.3 passing yards per game and threw for at least 225 yards in all eight regular season conference games. He backed that up with 304 passing yards in the ACC Championship Game against Clemson. However, that yardage came on a season-high 50 attempts.
However, given the big step up in competition and the winter weather conditions expected in Happy Valley, we are backing the Under on Jennings’ passing yards.
SMU wants to establish a running game, as Jennings only attempted more than 30 passes three times this year. He'll face the toughest defense he's seen all season, as the Nittany Lions rank top 20 in the country in creating contested catches.
Not only does Caesars offer a discount with -103 odds to back the Under, but the total there is higher than the 224.5 and 225.5 offered at the other best sports betting apps.
College football game predictions for Saturday
Clemson-Texas Under 52 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -112 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.83%
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Now that the College Football Playoff bracket is set, there are no more committees to impress with running up scores or winning by big margins. I envision Texas racing out to an early lead, and relying on its power running game with Quintrevion Wisner, who has eight explosive runs in the last three games.
Similarly, the way to attack the Longhorns' defense is on the ground, as they rank outside the top 50 in rush efficiency. But Texas does an outstanding job of stalling teams in the red zone, ranking in the top two nationally in Defensive Finishing Drives.
The Under is unbeaten in Texas’ last seven December games against AP top-15 opponents. Clemson has mustered just 17 points against the two previous SEC defenses it has faced (Georgia and South Carolina), but Texas’ defense trumps those units in many areas.
DraftKings is the only top sports betting site offering an O/U of 52, as all other competitors are a half-point lower at 51.5.
Tennessee +7.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Ohio State’s poor offensive showing in its regular season finale against Michigan is concerning, especially since the Wolverines were without their best defensive player.
Ohio State entered the game with the No. 2 passing efficiency offense but could only muster 175 passing yards on 5.3 yards per attempt against a team missing one of the best cornerbacks in the country, Will Johnson.
While Michigan did not record a sack, Ohio State’s offensive line has limited its explosiveness with its left tackle and center missing games down the stretch.
The Buckeyes now face a Tennessee defense that ranks in the top 10 in pressure rate. Meanwhile, head coach Ryan Day has yet to beat an SEC team (0-3). We are comfortable backing Tennessee at anything more than a touchdown, which is a spread most of the best sportsbooks carry.
College Football Playoff expert picks
- SMU vs. Penn State prediction
- Clemson vs. Texas prediction
- Tennessee vs. Ohio State prediction
- College Football Playoff best bets
- College Football Playoff player prop bets
- College Football Playoff parlay picks
- College Football Playoff anytime touchdown scorer predictions
- Notre Dame vs. Georgia opening odds
College football betting odds pages
Here are our best college football betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
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Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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