Ashton Jeanty Anytime TD Odds & Picks vs. Nevada: Week 11
Ashton Jeanty, one of the most exciting players in college football, leads Boise State against Nevada on Saturday at 8 p.m. ET (FOX) from Albertson Stadium in Boise, Idaho.
- Our Ashton Jeanty touchdown picks expect another impressive outing for the Heisman Trophy odds contender
- The Broncos are the Group of Five College Football Playoff odds favorites
- Boise State is a 24-point home favorite at our college football betting sites against the Wolf Pack
As part of our Week 11 college football predictions, we think Jeanty could enjoy his most explosive game in weeks against a struggling Nevada defense.
Ashton Jeanty touchdown odds: Week 11
College football odds as of Friday and subject to change. Track the NCAAF scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
| Market | Best odds | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime touchdown | -1800 via bet365 | 94.74% | $0.56 |
| First touchdown | +150 via DraftKings | 40% | $15 |
| Last touchdown | +130 via bet365 | 43.48% | $13 |
| 2+ touchdowns | -320 via DraftKings | 76.19% | $3.13 |
| 3+ touchdowns | +200 via BetMGM | 33.33% | $20 |
| 4+ touchdowns | +290 via FanDuel | 25.64% | $29 |
| 5+ touchdowns | +950 via FanDuel | 9.52% | $95 |
| 6+ touchdowns | +3200 via FanDuel | 3.03% | $320 |
Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best touchdown odds across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Best Ashton Jeanty touchdown pick vs. Nevada
Ashton Jeanty 3+ touchdowns ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +200 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 33.33%
The most significant reason to back this prop is the outlier price at BetMGM. This same prop is as short as -188 through bet365 - implying a 65.28% probability it hits - and no longer than -110 at our other best sportsbooks.
To get it at +200 is almost mind-boggling. If Jeanty scores three-plus touchdowns, this price pays a $20 profit on a $10 winning bet as opposed to just a $5.32 profit on the -188 odds.
And while scoring three times is a big ask for most players, Jeanty leads the country in touchdowns with 21 in eight games. That includes scoring at least three in four contests. He's also No. 1 in the nation in rushing yards after contact (1,146) and forced missed tackles (83), per PFF.
It helps that Nevada fields one of the worst defenses in college football. The Wolf Pack are 106th in EPA per rush on defense and have allowed the fourth-most rushing touchdowns in the country this season (23).
Thanks to Jeanty, Boise State boasts the most efficient run game in college football while ranking first in EPA per rush and 10th in SP+ on offense. And the school hasn't been shying away from feeding its bell cow.
Jeanty has been given 30-plus carries in three straight games, and that type of workload should help him score a hat-trick against this defense.
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Nevada vs. Boise State game info
- When: Saturday, Nov. 9
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: 39 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, wind 4 mph NE
- Favorite: Boise State -24 (-110 via DraftKings)
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