LSU vs. Florida Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 12
The Florida Gators and LSU Tigers renew their rivalry as each looks to get back into the win column.
Our LSU vs. Florida prediction supports the visitors covering the spread and living up to their status as road favorites. Kickoff is slated for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Fla.
The Tigers have won the last five meetings, their longest unbeaten streak since the teams began playing in 1937. Though a comparative long shot, LSU is still in the SEC Championship odds hunt, so the importance of this game cannot be overstated. Further, the visitors hold the all-time series advantage, 34-33-3, adding an extra layer of motivation.
The below picks are part of our college football Week 12 predictions.
Best LSU vs. Florida picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: LSU -4 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Florida ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: LSU-Florida Over 54.5 points (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
LSU vs. Florida against the spread prediction: Week 12
LSU to cover the spread: -4 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
LSU vs. Florida opening odds:
- LSU: -4.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Florida: +4.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Can the Tigers escape the Swamp?
This spread opened at LSU -4.5, and despite an overwhelming majority of bets from the public leaning the Tigers’ way, the hook has been eliminated at some sportsbooks.
This is good news for Florida as it means sharps are siding with the hosts. It could also indicate starting quarterback DJ Lagway is trending in the right direction ahead of this massive rivalry meeting.
Nevertheless, this line feels reactionary. LSU has gotten the brakes beaten off it over the last six quarters, but it played two great football teams. Meanwhile, its opponent has been the poster child of inconsistency.
Brian Kelly-coached teams have beaten Florida handily over the last two seasons. The Tigers won by three scores in Baton Rouge last season and by 10 in Gainesville in 2022.
Blake Baker’s defense has regressed recently against mobile quarterbacks, but Lagway’s hamstring injury will prevent the five-star freshman from reaching his full potential as a dual threat. For this reason, I don’t think it matters much who is under center for the hosts, as the visitors have the coaching and talent advantage.
This is a great bounce-back spot for Garrett Nussmeier and Co. as they look to keep their SEC Championship hopes alive. The Tigers have the horses to beat the Gators comfortably. In my opinion, this spread should probably be closer to a touchdown.
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
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LSU vs. Florida best bet
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Over 54.5 points (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Bettors will know LSU Overs were nearly automatic with Jayden Daniels under center the last couple of seasons. However, this new iteration of the Tigers goes Under at a 66% clip.
Meanwhile, Florida has leaned Over in six of its nine games this season. This rivalry has also seen 55 or more points scored in each of the last five meetings.
Both teams rank outside of the Top 50 in scoring defense nationally. LSU (T-70th) gives up an average of 25 points per game, whereas the Gators (89th) give up 27.5 points per game. This is exactly what the doctor ordered for inconsistent, struggling offenses on both sides. Expect a lot of points at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Most books have set the O/U at 55 points with standard juice. However, FanDuel is offering a total of 54.5 at slightly more juiced odds (-115), which we don’t mind paying to eliminate the possibility of a push. A winning $10 bet yields an $8.70 profit.
Best odds: -115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.49%
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LSU vs. Florida odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
LSU vs. Florida game info
- When: Saturday, Nov. 16
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (Gainesville, Fla.)
- How to watch: ABC/ESPN+
- Weather: 74 degrees, 6% chance of precipitation, wind 8 mph NNE
- Favorite: LSU -4.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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