Kent State vs. Miami (OH) Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 12

Matt MacKay

Last Updated: November 12, 2024 5:04 PM EST • 3 min 33 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Miami Redhawks quarterback Brett Gabbert throws in the second quarter against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium as we offer our Kent State vs. Miami (OH) prediction. — Miami Redhawks quarterback Brett Gabbert throws in the second quarter against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium. Photo by Matt Cashore via Imagn Images

The MAC is highly competitive, but Wednesday’s game featuring the 0-9 Kent State Golden Flashes and 5-4 Miami (OH) RedHawks has all the makings of a lopsided affair.

Kent State is coming off a 41-0 shutout loss to Ohio University at home, while Miami (OH) has won four consecutive games against MAC opponents after starting 1-4.

Our Kent State vs. Miami (OH) prediction expects the prohibitive home favorites to cover.

Tune in to kickoff at 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU to watch Kent State and Miami (OH) square off at Yager Stadium in Oxford, Ohio. The below picks are part of our college football Week 12 predictions.

Best Kent State vs. Miami (OH) picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

Against the spread pick: Miami (OH) -30.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs Kent State ⭐⭐⭐
My best bet: Under 45.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Kent State vs. Miami (OH) against the spread prediction: Week 12

Miami (OH) to cover the spread: -30.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Kent State vs. Miami (OH) opening odds:

Kent State +30.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Miami (OH) -30.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Offensive and defensive superiority

Miami (OH) doesn’t score many points, averaging 23.2 in 2024, which ranks 102nd out of 134 FBS teams. However, the RedHawks face the 134th-ranked defense when they host Kent State on Wednesday night.

The Golden Flashes have scored 27 points in their last three games, including being held off the scoreboard entirely for the third time in their 41-0 Week 11 home loss to the Ohio Bobcats.

Miami is offensively and defensively superior to Kent State. The RedHawks rank 25th in opponent points allowed per game (20.0), and they’re playing the worst-ranked offense in college football.

Miami (OH) has only covered -30.5 once this season (a 46-7 win at home over Central Michigan), but Kent State is awful on both sides of the football and cannot be trusted to cover any point spread.

Fade Kent State

This bet is more of an indictment of Kent State than it is supporting Miami (OH). The Golden Flashes have been held to 250 yards of total offense or less in three consecutive games against MAC opponents. With home-field advantage, they barely broke 100 yards against Ohio last week.

Miami’s stout defence will not allow Kent State to move into scoring position. The RedHawks' offense isn’t great, but they have scored 27 or more points in every game during their current four-game winning streak.

Kent State has surrendered 37 or more points in four of five conference games, and there’s enough data to support fading the Golden Flashes.

Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Kent State vs. Miami (OH) best bet

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Under 45.5 points (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Don’t take the bait

Despite how bad Kent State’s defense has played, don’t be fooled into betting Over 45.5 total points.

Miami (OH) will have their way on offense against the Golden Flashes.

Still, Ohio University only scored three offensive touchdowns during their 41-0 shutout win against Kent State last week. Two touchdowns came on special teams, which we cannot bank on recurring.

Conversely, Miami (OH) has an elite defense that has held every MAC opponent under 3.3 YPC. The RedHawks have allowed only one passing touchdown during their four-game winning streak.

Buck the trend

Miami has hit Over 45.5 points in every game they’ve won during conference play. However, three of their opponents scored 14 or more points, which we can confidently say Kent State will not accomplish.

Kent State’s offense should be neutralized, and Miami (OH) will chew the clock and control time of possession while winding up with a comprehensive victory. I'm predicting 35-3, 42-0, or 38-7.

This is a matchup pitting a talented defense against the worst offense in the FBS and, on the other side, a sub-par offense playing a woeful defense.

The RedHawks should move methodically down the field to finish their drives, bleeding the clock and ultimately cashing Under 45.5 total points while extending the win streak.

Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%

Kent State vs. Miami (OH) odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Kent State vs. Miami (OH) game info

When: Wednesday, Nov. 13
Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
Where: Yager Stadium (Oxford, Ohio)
How to watch: ESPNU
Weather: 53 degrees and cloudy
Favorite: Miami (OH) -30.5 (-110 via FanDuel)

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Written By:
Matt MacKay

Matt MacKay has handicapped golf, the NFL, NCAAF, and NHL since joining the sports betting industry as a writer in 2020. He’s worked for several prominent sites, recently expanding his coverage to include sports betting news and the regulatory industry. Bringing a background in communications and writing, earning a Masters Degree in Organizational Communication from Ohio University, Matt has co-hosted a fantasy football and sports betting podcast, while continuously refining his handicapping methods. This includes identifying recent trends, head-to-head statistics, and comparing individual and team strengths and weaknesses to accurately predict the outcome in certain betting markets before a game or event. He’s a daily bettor and tends to wager on FanDuel, with DraftKings and Hard Rock Bet as preferred sports betting app alternatives. An avid researcher, writer, editor, and podcaster, Matt is eager to dig into matchups to offer readers and subscribers value on his picks. He’s a big proponent of building bankroll by avoiding poor betting habits and tendencies, like chasing losses, placing too many wagers, and managing bankroll. His worst beats to date both came on two separate NFL parlays, losing due to Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown dropping passes. NRFIs have quickly become one of Matt’s favorite betting markets, recently diving into MLB game props.