College Football Playoff Odds 2024-25: Oregon, Ohio State Atop Board Ahead of Week 13
Following a Week 12 slate that was highlighted by a major SEC showdown, the College Football Playoff odds saw some serious movement.
Among the highlights:
- Thanks to Georgia's win over Tennessee, the Bulldogs are once again a college football championship odds favorite and their CFP odds shortened from -500 to -3000
- The loss lengthened the Volunteers' CFP odds from -330 to -120
- Oregon remains No. 1 in the AP Top 25 and its odds shortened from -10000 to -20000 after a close win over Wisconsin
- Ohio State (-10000) has the second-shortest odds at our college football betting sites after beating Northwestern
- Led by Heisman Trophy odds favorite Travis Hunter, Colorado beat Utah in Week 12 and is now minus money to make the CFP (-120)
Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, and Georgia are the safest plays for your College Football Playoff bracket predictions.
College Football Playoff odds 2024-25
College Football Playoff odds from our best sports betting apps; last updated Nov. 18 and subject to change.
| Team | Odds (DraftKings) | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | -20000 | 99.5% | $0.05 |
| Ohio State | -10000 | 99.01% | $0.10 |
| Texas | -3000 | 96.77% | $0.33 |
| Georgia | -3000 | 96.77% | $0.33 |
| Penn State | -2000 | 95.24% | $0.50 |
| Alabama | -1000 | 90.91% | $1 |
| Ole Miss | -500 | 83.33% | $2 |
| Notre Dame | -450 | 81.82% | $2.22 |
| Indiana | -450 | 81.82% | $2.22 |
| Boise State | -400 | 80% | $2.50 |
College Football Playoff favorite 2024-25
Oregon (-20000)
Oregon is among the handful of remaining undefeated Power 4 teams. Of those schools, no program boasts a higher quality win than the Ducks. Dan Lanning's team has all but locked up its spot in the College Football Playoff with its win over Ohio State.
The Ducks don't play Penn State this season, meaning they get a pretty clear shot at going 12-0 in the regular season. Their final opponent is a struggling Washington program, so an undefeated regular season is likely.
Oregon could even lose that game and still reach the Big Ten Championship Game. But I doubt the Ducks will endure a hiccup against the Huskies.
The Ducks are No. 5 in SP+ and rank third on offense thanks to the play of Heisman contender Dillon Gabriel. And Lanning's defense has locked in after a slow start to the year, ranking top 14 in both EPA per rush and dropback.
These odds have been steadily shortening every week after opening at -200, and they're only getting shorter.
There are very few scenarios in which the Ducks miss the CFP. That's why the best odds on the market from DraftKings pay just a $0.05 profit on a $10 winning bet.
Best odds: -20000 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 99.5%
Terms and conditions apply.
College Football Playoff Group of Five favorite
Boise State (-400)
One Group of Five team is guaranteed a playoff spot with the five highest-ranked conference champions making the College Football Playoff. But that's all dependent on which G5 conference champ the CFP committee ranks highest.
It's safe to assume Boise State would be the pick if the College Football Playoff were today. The Broncos are the highest-ranked G5 team in the CFP rankings (13th) and the AP Top 25 (12th), plus they boast a Heisman contender in Ashton Jeanty.
The Broncos went toe-to-toe with Oregon and lost just 37-34 thanks to the Ducks nailing a walk-off field goal. Boise State also beat the brakes off a now-ranked Washington State in a 45-24 win in Week 5 to add a high-quality non-conference win to its resume.
So it's no surprise the Broncos are the G5 favorites to make the CFP. Also working in their favor is the fact that Liberty, which was the second-favorite among G5 teams, lost to Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State.
And with the Broncos' 29-24 road win over UNLV in Week 9 - their biggest competition in the Mountain West - they're in position to win out.
At this point, I think Boise State, Tulane, Army, and Louisiana are the only teams with a shot here. And the Broncos boast a cheat code with Jeanty, so I'd take them with a $10 winning bet paying a $3.03 profit.
Best odds: -330 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 76.74%
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My College Football Playoff team to watch
SMU (+108)
We're at the point in the season where it's becoming increasingly difficult to find teams with a legit College Football Playoff spot that are still even or plus-money. Three weeks ago I had Indiana here at +110, the Hoosiers are now as short as -600.
So, instead, I'm targeting a team that's trending towards a shot at winning its conference, even if Miami is considered an ACC Championship lock by most.
SMU is sitting at +100 our other best sports betting sites while FanDuel has the Mustangs at +108. Those odds pay a $10.80 profit on a $10 winning bet.
The one loss for Rhett Lashlee's program also looks a whole lot better now than it did on Sept. 6. The Mustangs lost 18-15 to BYU on that Friday night when the Cougars were expected to be one of the worst teams in the Big 12 - now they're positioned to at least have a shot at winning the Big 12.
A 3-point loss to a team ranked in the top 15 certainly helps their resume, on top of the fact they've also beaten Louisville and Pittsburgh - two ranked opponents. And thanks to Clemson's loss to the Cardinals and Miami's loss to Georgia Tech, SMU has a clearer path to the ACC Championship.
If they can win out against Virginia and California, the Mustangs will likely play Miami for the conference title. I wouldn't count SMU out in that game either, they rank 13th in SP+ while Miami is 9th.
Even if they were to lose that game to the Hurricanes, the CFP selection committee would have to think hard about leaving an 11-2 team out if both their losses came to conference champs (Miami and BYU).
SMU might have the most underrated resume in the country right now.
Best odds: +108 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 48.08%
My College Football Playoff team to fade
Tennessee (-146)
It doesn't make sense that so many SEC teams have minus money odds. I'm not saying it's impossible for Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Tennessee to all get into the College Football Playoff; I'd never be so naive to believe SEC bias wouldn't make that happen.
However, the selection committee is going to need a lot of things to transpire if they plan on getting five teams from the conference into the postseason.
There are only seven at-large bids and the Big Ten is in good shape to get three of them, with Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State having just two losses between the four of them - and all four have -600 odds or shorter.
Meanwhile, Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Tennessee have a combined nine losses. Four of them already have two losses each. There's simply no way all five get in unless Indiana has a colossal collapse.
That basically made Georgia and Tennessee's game on Saturday an elimination game for the CFP. And with Georgia winning by double-digits, I'm not sure how the Volunteers are supposed to get into the playoff unless several upsets take place.
Plus, Tennessee has one of the uglier losses of the five, with the Volunteers falling 19-14 to Arkansas on Oct. 5.
At bet365, you can bet on specific teams not making the CFP. The Volunteers' odds to miss the CFP (+100) pay a $10 profit on a $10 winning bet.
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How the College Football Playoff bracket would look today
Seeding based on the College Football Playoff rankings, which release weekly until the final rankings on Sunday, Dec. 8.
| Seed | Team | Record | Selection |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oregon | 10-0 | Big Ten Champion |
| 2 | Texas | 8-1 | SEC Champion |
| 3 | BYU | 9-0 | Big 12 Champion |
| 4 | Miami | 9-1 | ACC Champion |
| 5 | Ohio State | 8-1 | At-large |
| 6 | Penn State | 8-1 | At-large |
| 7 | Indiana | 10-0 | At-large |
| 8 | Tennessee | 8-1 | At-large |
| 9 | Notre Dame | 8-1 | At-large |
| 10 | Alabama | 7-2 | At-large |
| 11 | Ole Miss | 8-2 | At-large |
| 12 | Boise State | 8-1 | Highest-ranked G5 champion |
College Football Playoff first-round matchups if the CFP was today
| Matchup | Date | Location |
|---|---|---|
| No. 12 Boise State vs. No. 5 Ohio State | Friday, Dec. 20 OR Saturday, Dec. 21 | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio) |
| No. 11 Ole Miss vs. No. 6 Penn State | Friday, Dec. 20 OR Saturday, Dec. 21 | Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pa.) |
| No. 10 Alabama vs. No. 7 Indiana | Friday, Dec. 20 OR Saturday, Dec. 21 | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, Ind.) |
| No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 8 Tennessee | Friday, Dec. 20 OR Saturday, Dec. 21 | Neyland Stadium (Knoxville, Tenn.) |
The second College Football Playoff rankings were released on Tuesday, Nov. 12 for the new College Football Playoff bracket, and the selection committee will continue to update the rankings weekly until the final rankings are revealed on Sunday, Dec. 8.
With Oregon, Texas, BYU, and Miami being the highest-ranked teams in their respective Power 4 conferences, they would earn a bye if the CFP was today. And Boise State remains the highest-ranked Group of Five team, which would earn it the fifth automatic bid.
Thanks to Ohio State's win over Penn State, the Buckeyes remain the highest at-large seed while Penn State, Indiana, and Tennessee would be slated to host the other first-round games.
The at-large bids are made up of three SEC schools, three Big Ten programs, and Notre Dame. With the Fighting Irish back in the picture, it appears the Big 12 and ACC might each miss out on receiving a second bid.
Remember, expansion essentially happened to put more SEC and Big Ten teams into the playoff.
College Football Playoff odds over time
Odds via DraftKings
| Team | Opening odds (April 29) | Oct. 7 | Nov. 18 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | -600 | -450 | -300 |
| Ohio State | -600 | -1600 | -10000 |
| Texas | -250 | -1000 | -3000 |
| Oregon | -200 | -700 | -20000 |
| Notre Dame | -165 | -150 | -450 |
| Penn State | -130 | -300 | -2000 |
| Ole Miss | -130 | -120 | -500 |
| Michigan | -120 | +4000 | OFF |
| LSU | -110 | +220 | OFF |
| Alabama | +100 | -600 | -1000 |
| Florida State | +140 | +50000 | OFF |
| Tennessee | +170 | +100 | -120 |
| Missouri | +175 | +500 | +7500 |
| Clemson | +190 | -110 | +280 |
| Miami | +220 | -300 | -160 |
| Utah | +220 | +220 | OFF |
| Texas A&M | +220 | +150 | +350 |
| Kansas State | +250 | +200 | +15000 |
| USC | +400 | +1500 | OFF |
| Liberty | +400 | +500 | OFF |
Past CFP National Championship winners
| Year | Team | Preseason odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Michigan | +800 |
| 2023 | Georgia | +350 |
| 2022 | Georgia | +600 |
| 2021 | Alabama | +300 |
| 2020 | LSU | +2500 |
| 2019 | Clemson | +400 |
| 2018 | Alabama | +250 |
| 2017 | Clemson | +700 |
| 2016 | Alabama | +700 |
| 2015 | Ohio State | +4000 |
How to bet on the College Football Playoff
Betting on College Football Playoff odds is pretty straightforward. Check out the odds for different teams; for example, if Alabama is at +300 and Ohio State is at +600, Alabama is favored to make it to the playoffs.
Decide how much you want to wager and place your bet. If you bet $100 on Alabama at +300 and it makes it, you’ll get $400 back ($300 profit + $100 stake).
Keep an eye on the teams' performances throughout the season to see how your bet is shaping up.
Remember, with future markets, odds can see plenty of movement. It's all about performance and perception.
If a team performs better or worse than expected, its odds will change. Injuries to key players can significantly impact a team's chances and, consequently, their odds. New player acquisitions or losses, coaching changes, and team dynamics can also affect odds. Public betting trends matter too; if a lot of people are betting on one team, sportsbooks might adjust the odds to manage their risk.
Expert analysis and predictions can also sway public opinion and betting patterns. Understanding these factors helps you make smarter bets and potentially catch some favorable odds shifts.
How to read College Football Playoff odds
Odds are typically shown in formats like +300 or -150. Positive odds (e.g., +300) show how much profit you'd make on a $100 bet.
For instance, a $100 bet at +300 odds would win you $300, plus your original $100 stake, totaling $400. Negative odds (e.g., -150) indicate how much you need to bet to win $100. So, a $150 bet at -150 odds would win you $100, plus your $150 stake, totaling $250.
These odds reflect the implied probability of a team making the playoffs. Lower odds (e.g., +200) suggest a higher likelihood, while higher odds (e.g., +1000) indicate a lower likelihood. Sportsbooks adjust these odds based on various factors like team performance, injuries, coaching changes, and public betting patterns.
For example, if Alabama has +300 odds and Ohio State has +600 odds, Alabama is considered more likely to make the playoffs. If you bet $100 on Alabama and they make it, you’d get $400 back ($300 profit + $100 stake).
College Football Playoff FAQs
Who is the favorite to make the College Football Playoff?
Oregon has the shortest odds to make the 2025 College Football Playoff. The Ducks' shortest odds are -20000, implying a 99.5% probability they will make the playoff, according to our odds calculator.
Who are the top four in the College Football Playoff?
The top four seeds, and first-round byes, go to the highest-ranked conference champions. If the College Football Playoff were today, the top four seeds would go to Oregon (Big Ten), Georgia (SEC), Miami (ACC), and BYU (Big 12).
How many teams make the College Football Playoff?
Previously only four teams were selected for the College Football Playoff, but this season the playoff will expand to 12 teams. The top five ranked conference champions will be automatic qualifiers for the playoff along with seven at-large teams, decided by the College Football Playoff selection committee.
The top four conference champions will receive a first-round bye in the playoff.
Who made the College Football Playoff last year?
Michigan, Washington, Texas, and Alabama were chosen for the College Football Playoff by the selection committee last season.
When does the College Football Playoff start?
The 2025 College Football Playoff starts with the first round on Dec. 20 and 21, with games being played at the campus of the higher seed. The quarterfinals will then be played across the Fiesta, Peach, Rose, and Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
The semifinals take place Jan. 9 and 10 at the Orange and Cotton Bowl before the CFP National Championship game on Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga.
College football odds pages
| CFP National Championship Odds | SEC Odds | Big 12 Odds | Bowl Season Odds & Info |
| Heisman Trophy Odds | Big Ten Odds | Pac-12 Odds | |
| College Football Playoff Odds | Mountain West Odds | ACC Odds |
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