College Football Playoff Predictions: Odds & Best Pick for Each First-Round Matchup
The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff field is set with eight teams in action in the first round starting on Dec. 20.
We make our college football playoff predictions for those participants as they prepare for their opening games, including three spread picks and a bold upset selection. Oregon, Georgia, Boise State, and Arizona State are on bye as the four highest-rated conference champions. Try your hand at completing the college football playoff bracket.
The other eight teams will meet in four games that the college football playoff odds don't expect to be particularly close. Each matchup features a spread of 7.5 points or more, as our Rob Paul highlights in his college football bowl games odds piece.
College football playoff predictions: First round
- Indiana vs. Notre Dame prediction: Notre Dame -7.5 (-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- SMU vs. Penn State prediction: SMU +9 (-110 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐
- Clemson vs. Texas prediction: Texas -10.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Tennessee vs. Ohio State prediction: Tennessee moneyline (+230 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐
College football playoff prediction: Indiana vs. Notre Dame
My best pick: Notre Dame -7.5 (-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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What do you get when two of the best teams against the spread, who just so happen to be in-state rivals, collide in the College Football Playoff? Chaos.
While these noisy neighbors haven't met in 33 years, sparks will surely fly as the visitors try to win in South Bend for the first time since 1898.
History can be thrown out the window, at least as far as Indiana is concerned. The Hoosiers are enjoying arguably the best season in program history; the only one that compares is the 9-0-1 1945 campaign under Bo McMillin. Curt Cignetti's team has the third-best average margin of victory in the NCAA at +26.3 points per game, which perfectly encapsulates their dominance.
Unfortunately for Indiana, the No. 1 team in that statistic will be lining up against it on Dec. 20. Notre Dame has won 10 straight, more often than not in convincing fashion. The hosts will have more advantages than just home-field against Indiana, too.
The Hoosiers have struggled against teams that are strong in the trenches, which the Fighting Irish are this year. For those reasons, I'm riding with Notre Dame -7.5, which carries -105 odds at FanDuel.
Indiana vs. Notre Dame live odds & info
- When: Friday, Dec. 20
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Notre Dame Stadium (Notre Dame, Ind.)
- How to watch: ABC/ESPN
- Favorite: Notre Dame -7.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
College football playoff prediction: SMU vs. Penn State
My best pick: SMU +9 (-110 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐
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I've been very vocal in my college football championship predictions in saying that I believe Penn State has the easiest path of any team to the College Football Playoff semifinals. The Nittany Lions are a whopping 59-11 at home under James Franklin over the last nine years.
As such, the visitors will have to overcome history and winter weather conditions to upset the hosts. Therefore, my gut reaction was to take Penn State and the points.
However, the Nittany Lions haven't been great against the spread this season (6-7). SMU has been quite strong in this metric, with a 61.5% cover rate during their debut campaign in the ACC. The Mustangs rank sixth in the country in scoring offense at 38.5 points per game. It's incredibly tough to blow elite offenses out, and SMU's two losses on the year came by a combined six points.
For these reasons, I'll take the Mustangs as they're getting nine points on the road. ESPN BET has the best price of any of the best college football betting sites at standard juice for the aforementioned 9-point spread.
SMU vs. Penn State live odds & info
- When: Saturday, Dec. 21
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Where: Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pa.)
- How to watch: TNT/Max
- Favorite: Penn State -8.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
College football playoff prediction: Clemson vs. Texas
My best pick: Texas -10.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Texas fans will be disappointed by the results from the weekend, but I came away from the SEC Championship feeling better than ever about the Longhorns' chances to win the College Football Playoff. Steve Sarkisian's team showed vast improvements in the trenches against perhaps the most NFL-ready units in the country, the Georgia Bulldogs' linemen.
This is one of the many advantages that the hosts will have over Clemson.
Whereas the two offenses are comparable - Clemson ranks 12th in total offense, Texas ranks 18th - the defenses are in different classes entirely. The Longhorns boast the No. 1 pass defense, No. 15 rush defense, No. 3 total defense, and No. 2 scoring defense. The Tigers sit 60th, 73rd, 65th, and 35th, respectively, in the same metrics.
Clemson's rush defense is the particularly worrying unit in this matchup. Texas played bully ball against Texas A&M a few weeks ago, as it ran the ball 47 times for 243 yards. If the Tigers don't find a solution before kickoff, it could be a similar story with the Longhorns dominating the line of scrimmage. BetMGM offers the best odds (-115) for those looking to back Texas on the betting market.
Clemson vs. Texas live odds & info
- When: Saturday, Dec. 21
- Kickoff: 4 p.m. ET
- Where: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, Texas)
- How to watch: TNT/Max
- Favorite: Texas -10.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
College football playoff prediction: Tennessee vs. Ohio State
My best pick: Tennessee moneyline (+230 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐
Each one of the four first-round games features a spread that's larger than a touchdown. It's tough in those spots to predict any upsets, but if there is a surprise winner, my money's on the Volunteers.
Tennessee is one of only three teams — alongside Oregon and Texas — that has a top-15 offense and defense. Ohio State isn't playing great football right now, especially after suffering its worst loss in recent memory to a mediocre Michigan team. The Wolverines provided the blueprint to beating the Buckeyes, and it plays right into a run-heavy offense's hands.
The Volunteers will need Nico Iamaleava to play better than he has all year on the road. But if he's able to complement Dylan Sampson when his number is called, I think Tennessee has enough firepower to pull off the upset. ESPN BET has the best price among the best sports betting apps on the Tennessee moneyline at +230.
Tennessee vs. Ohio State live odds & info
- When: Saturday, Dec. 21
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
- How to watch: ABC/ESPN
- Favorite: Ohio State -7.5 (+100 via BetMGM)
College football odds pages
| CFP National Championship Odds | SEC Odds | Big 12 Odds |
| Heisman Trophy Odds | Big Ten Odds | ACC Odds |
| College Football Playoff Odds | Mountain West Odds | MAC Odds |
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