Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Expert Picks: CFP National Championship Game Predictions
The CFP National Championship Game is nearly upon us as we offer our Ohio State vs. Notre Dame expert picks and predictions for Monday's title game at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
- The Buckeyes are the favorites by the college football championship odds after outscoring Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas by a combined score of 111-52
- Ohio State's Will Howard and Jack Sawyer lead the CFP National Championship MVP odds
- The Buckeyes are a 8-point favorites over Notre Dame at our college football betting sites
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame expert picks: CFP National Championship Game
College football odds subject to change. See all of our college football picks for more on this week's top matchups.
| Matchup | Rob Paul | Gabe Henderson |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ohio State (-350 via BetMGM) | Ohio State (-350 at BetMGM) |
| Spread | Notre Dame +9.5 (-112 via BetRivers) | Ohio State -8 (-110 via ESPN BET) |
| Over/Under | Under 46.5 (-110 via Caesars) | Over 46.5 (-110 via Caesars) |
| Best player prop | J. Smith to win offensive MVP (+400 via FanDuel) | C. Downs to win defensive MVP (+300 via DraftKings) |
| Anytime touchdown scorer prediciton | T. Henderson anytime touchdown scorer (+105 via FanDuel) | J. Love anytime touchdown scorer (+175 via BetMGM) |
My Ohio State vs. Notre Dame comparison looks at the tale of the tape for this national championship matchup.
Best Ohio State vs. Notre Dame prediction
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Ohio State vs. Notre Dame prediction: Jeremiah Smith to win CFP National Championship Game 2025 Offensive MVP ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The two best players taking the field in the national championship aren't even going to be a part of the 2025 NFL Draft odds race, but that doesn't mean they couldn't both take home MVP honors.
While Gabe is backing sophomore superstar Caleb Downs to win defensive MVP, I'm taking freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith to win the award on offense. Sure, Texas essentially shut him down in the Cotton Bowl, but the last time he failed to make a major impact in a game (35 yards against Michigan), Chip Kelly got him touches in the following contest.
After the loss to the Wolverines, Smith combined to have 14 touches for 295 yards and four TDs against Oregon and Tennessee. Those defenses rank in the top five in EPA per dropback, so Notre Dame ranking first by that metric shouldn't scare you off.
Smith is the Buckeyes' best playmaker and is one of just four players in the country with double-digit contested catches (12) and three-plus yards per route run (3.13), per PFF. That's why he's the best value among Buckeyes to win offensive MVP, with a $10 winning bet paying a $40 profit.
Best odds: +400 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 20%
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Ohio State vs. Notre Dame prediction: Caleb Downs to win CFP National Championship Game 2025 Defensive MVP ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Caleb Downs might be the best player on the field - which says a lot, given the abundance of NFL talent on each sideline. He's a game-changer, as evidenced by his stats, and he has a knack for the flashy fundamentals required to stand out on the biggest stages.
Defensive backs have won six of the 10 defensive MVP awards since the national championship accolades were introduced a decade ago. Seeing as the Buckeyes are a significant favorite by the spread, the award winner will more than likely come from their defense.
Our best sportsbooks list Downs at +300 to win the award, giving him a 25% implied probability. A $10 winning wager on the safety to be named MVP returns $30 in profits.
Best odds: +300 at DraftKings | Implied probability: 25%
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–– Gabe Henderson (SBR | Twitter/X)
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame expert picks & predictions
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