Auburn vs. Alabama Prediction & Picks: College Football Week 14
It’s been a decade since Auburn has kept an Iron Bowl played in Tuscaloosa even remotely close. Is this the year that the Tigers have the makeup to compete with Alabama on the road?
With the Crimson Tide still lurking on the periphery of the College Football Playoff odds conversation, our Auburn vs. Alabama prediction sees the Tigers rushing offense as the key to a competitive Iron Bowl.
Alabama (-11.5) hosts Auburn at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala. on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC), and we make our best bets for the rivalry as part of our Week 14 college football predictions.
Auburn vs. Alabama prediction & best bet
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Auburn +12.5 (-112 via DraftKings) vs. Alabama ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Jarquez Hunter Over 77.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Auburn vs. Alabama ATS prediction: Week 14
Auburn to cover the spread: +12.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -112 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.83%
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Alabama’s offense fell flat in a 27-3 loss at Oklahoma last week. Auburn’s defense isn’t quite on OU’s level, but it still ranks 33rd nationally in adjusted efficiency.
Holding Bama below the 34.0 points per game it has averaged in conference home games seems possible. Excluding the overtime period against Texas A&M, Auburn has allowed just 23.0 PPG in SEC play.
These Tigers don’t fear the road
Auburn has played only three road games, but the Tigers held their own in each, covering at Georgia and beating Kentucky by 14 as an underdog. They fell by four at Missouri; the spread fluctuated between +3.5 and +4.5.
Not since 2014 has Auburn stayed within 12.5 points of Alabama at Bryant-Denny, but the Tigers have only lost once by this margin all season. Between Jarquez Hunter and Payton Thorne, I like the Tigers to move the ball on the ground enough to keep the Iron Bowl competitive.
We get a nice edge at DraftKings with Auburn +12.5 compared to +11.5 at other sportsbooks.
Auburn vs. Alabama best bet
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Jarquez Hunter Over 77.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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For our spread pick on this game to cash, Hunter has to be a factor. Auburn churning out first downs on the ground would shorten the game by limiting the number of times Jalen Milroe gets to touch the football. And it’s something the Tigers can conceivably do.
Hunter has cleared 77.5 rushing yards in five of his last seven games, including a pair of 90+ yard efforts against Georgia and Oklahoma. Stopping the run has been a vulnerability for Alabama’s defense, ranking 68th in FBS by allowing 151.7 rushing yards per game. OU just racked up 257 rushing yards against the Tide.
We like the value on this prop at FanDuel, which lists Hunter’s rushing yardage line at 77.5 yards whereas the rest of the betting market has the line at 80.5 yards.
Our Phil Wood is also backing Hunter as part of his Auburn vs. Alabama player prop bet odds and touchdown picks.
Auburn vs. Alabama odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Auburn vs. Alabama live odds
Auburn vs. Alabama opening odds:
- Auburn: +15.5 (-110)
- Alabama: -15.5 (-110)
Auburn vs. Alabama game info
- When: Saturday, Nov. 30
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium (Tuscaloosa, Ala.)
- How to watch: ABC
- Weather: 52 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 5 mph SW
- Favorite: Alabama -11.5 (-108 via FanDuel)
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